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Grain Market Summary - Wednesday 26th September 2018

Compiled by Hayley Hobbs

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OVERALL

  • Wheat softened overnight on the expectation that world stocks will be increased in the upcoming quarterly stocks data due out Friday. All other commodities made minor gains, while the AUD is unchanged.

 

WHEAT 

 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 18 (Z)

520.75

-6.25

$263.71

-3.20

522.00

-7.00

581.00

-3.25

Mar 19 (H)

539.50

-6.00

$273.20

-3.08

545.50

-7.00

595.50

-3.75

May 19 (K)

551.25

-6.00

$279.15

-3.08

557.50

-7.25

602.75

-4.00

July 19 (N)

552.00

-7.25

$279.53

-3.71

557.50

-7.25

608.25

-3.75

  • Quarterly grain stocks data will be released by the USDA at the end of this week. The trade is expecting an upward revision to stocks due to good yields and slow export pace in the US.
  • Beneficial rainfall in Russia which will aid their winter planting also contributed to the softer tone in wheat last night.
  • Lots of tenders this week including Taiwan seeking 110,000mt of US wheat and Bangladesh tendering for 50,000mt.

 

CORN/ BARLEY

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 18 (Z)

363.75

+3.25

Mar 19 (H)

375.75

+3.25

May 19 (K)

383.50

+3.25

July 19 (N)

388.75

+3.00

  • Short covering and bargain buying saw corn make minor gains.
  • Dr Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 96mmt. 
  • Jordan will retender for 120,000mt of barley today, whilst Turkey will tender next week for 246,000mt.

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Nov 19 (X)

845.75

+4.75

490.90

+1.60

Nov 18   (X)

367.25

+4.75

Jan 19 (F)

859.75

+4.50

497.70

+1.60

Feb 19   (G)

369.50

+5.00

Mar 19 (H)

872.75

+4.25

504.00

+1.60

May 19   (K)

369.50

+4.00

  • ICE canola inched higher on escalating trade tensions between China and the US. You would expect Canada to see some benefit from the trade dispute as China looks for alternative sources.
  • Informa FNP increased their Brazilian soybean estimate by 1mmt to 122mmt, sighting favourable growing conditions.

 

OTHER

Contract

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7255

0.0000

AUDCAD

0.9406

+0.0010

CRUDE (X)

72.28

-0.37

  • Our currency is unchanged from yesterday.
  • Next big input will be US official funds rate out tomorrow. It is anticipated the rate will increase to 2.25% (from 2%) and this will likely cause the Aussie to soften.
  • Attention will also be on the tone of the commentary given by the Fed, as the market looks for indication of what the timeline for further hikes (if any) will be.

 

SPREADS

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

 

Close

Change

WH9-WZ8

18.75

+0.25

KWZ8-WZ8

1.25

-0.75

MWZ8 - WZ8

60.25

+3.00

WN9 - WZ8

30.50

+0.25

KWH9 - WH9

6.00

-1.00

MWH9 - WH9

56.00

+2.25

WK9 - WZ8

30.50

+0.25

KWK9 - WH9

6.25

-1.25

MWK9 - WK9

51.50

+2.00

WZ8 - CZ8

157.00

-9.50

KWZ8 - CZ8

158.25

-10.25

MWZ8 - CZ8

217.25

-6.50

 

Have a great day!

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at hhobbs@plumgrove.com with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Hayley Hobbs

 

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