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Grain Market Summary - Tuesday 17th October 2017

Compiled by Aaron Dolin

To get the Daily Market Summary in your inbox every morning, send an email to adolin@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

 

OVERALL

  • Weaker across the board overnight. Markets are watching South American weather forecasts and US planted acres for short-term direction. The AUD lower at US0.7840 this morning.                                                                                          

WHEAT 

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

CBOT (AUD/t)

KCBOT (c/bu)

MGEX (c/bu)

Dec 17  (Z)

436.50

-3.00

$204.58

 $    (1.41)

433.75

-2.50

609.50

-5.50

Mar 18  (H)

455.00

-3.00

$213.25

 $    (1.41)

451.75

-2.75

623.50

-5.50

May 18  (K)

468.25

-2.25

$219.46

 $    (1.05)

465.75

-2.50

631.00

-4.50

July 18  (N)

481.50

-2.75

$225.67

 $    (1.29)

483.75

-2.25

634.75

-5.25

  • Both Chicago and Kansas started the session well before both again found resistance at their respective 440c/bu levels. Minneapolis also followed lower.
  • NAB decreased its Australian wheat production estimate to 18.7mmt, which if realised would be our smallest harvest in a decade, and down almost 47% from last year’s record.
  • The USDA reported weekly US wheat export inspections of 322.9kmt – once again below the trades expectations which now puts exports 4% last year.
  • NASS estimates US winter wheat planting is now 60% complete, up from 48% last week but still behind the 5-year average (71%).
  • Russia's Agriculture Ministry estimate Russia's 2017 wheat crop at up to 83 million tonnes, the RIA news agency quoted the ministry as saying on Monday.

 

CORN

Contract

CBOT (c/bu)

Dec 17 (Z)

350.50

-2.25

Mar 18 (H)

364.25

-2.25

May 18  (K)

372.75

-2.50

  • Soft export data and upcoming warm weather pressured corn futures lower overnight.  
  • A warmer 8 and 10 day forecast for the US corn belt should aid harvest, which is now only 28% complete and running well behind the 47% average.  
  • The USDA reported weekly US corn export inspections of 323.67kmt – also coming in well below the trades expectations.
  • US farmers seem unwilling to sell at these levels which continues to put some support behind current price levels.  

 

OILSEEDS    

Contract

CBOT Soybeans (c/bu)

ICE Canola (CAD/t)

Contract

MATIF Rapeseed (Euro/t)

Nov 17 (X)

991.00

-9.25

498.40

-0.60

Nov 17   (X)

366.00

-1.50

Mar 18 (H)

1010.75

-8.50

505.40

-0.50

Feb 18   (G)

371.50

-1.50

May 18  (K)

1019.75

-8.25

510.10

-0.80

May 18   (K)

374.00

-1.00

  • Weakness in the soymeal market fuelled the selling in beans overnight.  
  • The USDA reported weekly US bean export sales of 1.75mmt – well above the trades expectations.  

 

OTHER

 

 

 

AUDUSD

0.7841

-0.0045

AUDCAD

0.9826

-0.0016

CRUDE (U)

52.14

+0.41

  • The AUD fell away throughout the US trading session overnight despite the strength shown in commodity prices and global equity strength.  
  • Our local ASX200 index (^AXJO) hit a 5-month high yesterday as every sector finished in the green. The ASX has only finished lower once in the last 7 sessions (CommSec TV).
  • US equity markets all hit new highs overnight. The Dow Jones is on track to break through the 23,000 mark for the first time. The US Fed comments surrounding a December rate hike firmed up the banking sector (CommSec TV).
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) broke through the 1500 mark again overnight, gaining a further 38 points to close out Mondays session at 1523.  

 

SPREADS

 

Close

 

Close

 

Close

WH8 - WZ7

18.50

0.00

KWZ7 - WZ7

-2.75

+0.50

MWZ7 - WZ7

173.00

-2.50

WK8 - WZ7

31.75

+0.75

KWH8 - WH8

-3.25

+0.25

MWH8 - WH8

168.50

-2.50

WN8 - WZ7

45.00

+0.25

KWK8 - WK8

-2.50

-0.25

MWK8 - WK8

162.75

-2.25

WZ7- CZ7

86.00

-0.75

KWZ7 - CZ7

83.25

-0.25

KWK8 - CK8

93.00

0.00

 

Have a great day!

 

Thank you for reading. To subscribe, please send me an email at adolin@plumgrove.com.au with "Subscribe" in the subject line.

Aaron Dolin

 

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